The qualitative predictions for solar cycle 25

General physics and astronomy discussions not directly related to Celestia
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Paradigmer
Posts: 11
Joined: 30.01.2018
With us: 2 years 9 months

The qualitative predictions for solar cycle 25

Post #1by Paradigmer » 23.10.2020, 15:16

Animation of planetarium charts for solar cycle 25

This is the visual analysis with a barycentric planetarium set up to qualitatively predict the peak and trough of the solar cycle 25.

This barycentric analysis is predicting the solar maximum of the solar cycle 25 would occur in October 2023 with the Sun-SSB-BJS-BUN alignment in phase 3 of the 3-body motion. And with the comparative analysis of the past solar cycles, it predicts at this solar maximum the Sun would switch its magnetic pole to the reversed state while it is moving farthest away from the SSB in solar cycle 25. Uranus and Neptune would not be perturbing the periodicity of this solar maximum rendered with the BJS cycle as a result of BUN would also be in the alignment.

It is also predicting the solar minimum of the solar cycle 26 in February 2030 with the BUN-Sun-SSB-BJS alignment in phase 4 of the 3-body motion. And it statistically at this solar minimum the Sun would remain in the state of reversed polarity for its magnetic pole while it is making its closest approach to the SSB. Uranus and Neptune would not be perturbing the periodicity of this solar minimum rendered with the BJS cycle as a result of BUN would also be in the alignment.

The basis of this research could be found on this webpage: "The UVS inductive resolution on sunspot".

Am grateful to SkyMarvels for the fabulous planetarium software tool that could set the planetary reference frame to SSB, for I would not be able to present this analysis at all without Celestia.
Last edited by Paradigmer on 07.11.2020, 05:37, edited 1 time in total.

Topic author
Paradigmer
Posts: 11
Joined: 30.01.2018
With us: 2 years 9 months

The basis for the predictions of solar cycle 25

Post #2by Paradigmer » 07.11.2020, 05:25

isunspots_1880-1920 .png


Added after 8 minutes 36 seconds:
The basis for the barycentric predictions for solar cycle 25.
https://www.uvs-model.com/pictures/isunspots_1880-1920%20.png

This barycentric analysis with the solar cycle chart from 12 Max to 15 Min, shows the 11-year solar cycle is correlated with the barycentric alignment of Sun-SSB-BJS.

To inspect the elements in the SIDC sunspot chart, visit the UVS webpage on "The barycentric drivers of the solar cycle" by clicking on the boxes in the chart to show the respective barycentric alignments.

https://www.uvs-model.com/pictures/SC12-Max-to-SC15-Min-Animation.gif

This animation at a higher sampling rate is showing the oscillation of BJSUN with the alignment Sun and SSB, is correlated with the minor fluctuations of the 11-year solar cycle.

In the reference frame of SSB that aligns with the barycenter of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune (BJSUN as a cyan dot), the BJS (as a red dot) in the animation from SC12 Max to SC15 Min had demonstrated it revolved around the BJSUN with its clockwise differential revolution against the cyclonic motion of the gas giants.

When BJS was moving into the opposition in the half-cycle of the 3-body motion with SSB, BJSUN, and BJS, the solar cycle made the turnarounds from the solar minima without switching the magnetic pole of the Sun while being perturbed by BUN.

And when BJS was revolving out of the opposition phase in the half-cycle of the 3-body motion with SSB, BJSUN, BJS by moving to in between the alignment of SSB and BJSUN, it switched the magnetic pole of the Sun as well as made the turnarounds from the solar maxima while being perturbed by BUN.

The above observations are the basis for the barycentric predictions for solar cycle 25.

Nonetheless, it would still be necessary to thoroughly investigate the entire solar cycle records with an interactive barycentric planetarium application with the capability to more accurately indicate and show how the barycenters of the gas giants were dynamically revolving around the barycenter of the Solar System.

Hence, the request for SkyMarvels to help with the add-on.

Topic author
Paradigmer
Posts: 11
Joined: 30.01.2018
With us: 2 years 9 months

Post #3by Paradigmer » 21.11.2020, 09:02

The fluctuations of the solar cycle

The fluctuations within the solar cycles were further investigated for their planetary arrangements with the date of those intermediate peaks and troughs in the solar cycle.

In the case study for solar cycle 1 as shown with the animation shown in the link below, it was showing the haphazard alignments of planets and barycenters were largely correlated with the fluctuations of the solar cycle.

The finding of this case study warrants a thorough investigation of the entire solar cycle records in the barycentric planetarium set up.

https://www.uvs-model.com/pictures/Celestia-SC01.gif

This animation for investigating the fluctuations of the solar cycle 1 was done by sieving through around 120 (~10-year x 12 months/year) frames of the digitally captured Celestia planetarium chart. Each frame essentially required to plot 11 barycenters and 12 lines to hunt for any alignment. Those with the discovered alignments were thus stiched as this presentation of the animation. The work for 265 years of sunspot record with a total of ~3,180 frames if done manually would be a nightmarish job. :fie:

Anyone who could help out this poor bloke with no programming skill to do the add-ons, would be much appreciated. :pray:

Topic author
Paradigmer
Posts: 11
Joined: 30.01.2018
With us: 2 years 9 months

Post #4by Paradigmer » 23.11.2020, 03:26

This is a sample that shows the located planetary barycenters of the four gas giants.

https://www.uvs-model.com/pictures/Celestia%201762%2011%20-%20K.png

The formula for calculating the barycenter positions between two objects is given as:

Distance from mass A = Mass B/(Mass A + Mass B)

Earth-mass is 5.972E+24 Kg

Planet Abbreviation Mass (Kg) Mass /Earth
Jupiter J 1.898E+27 317.816
Saturn S 5.683E+26 95.161
Uranus U 8.681E+25 14.536
Neptune N 1.024E+26 17.147
Note: The figures of these gas giants do not include the mass of their moons.

The weightings of the various barycenters
Main barycentric weightings for the case study. Acronym - Mass/Earth
Barycenter of Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune, and Uranus. BJSUN 444.660
Barycenter of Jupiter and Saturn. BJS 412.977
Barycenter of Uranus and Neptune. BUN 31.683

Secondary barycentric weightings
Barycenter of Jupiter, Saturn, and Neptune. BJSN 430.124
Barycenter of Jupiter-Saturn-Uranus. BJSU 427.513
Barycenter of Jupiter, Uranus, and Neptune. BJUN 349.499
Barycenter of Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune. BSUN 126.844
Barycenter of Jupiter and Neptune. BJN 334.963
Barycenter of Jupiter and Uranus. BJU 332.353
Barycenter of Saturn and Neptune. BSN 112.307
Barycenter of Saturn and Uranus. BSU 109.697

In the barycentric planetarium, the 3-body motion of Sun, SSB, and BJS as the theme for data collection was investigated and recorded in an orderly manner for the alignments that involved the Sun, SSB, the main and secondary groups of the 11 barycenters, and the 4 gas giants.


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